Yesterday there was an early parliamentary election in Iceland,
occasioned by the collapse in January of the previous government after
extraordinary public demonstrations. Here are some background and some
key points.
* From 1995 the Independence Party, which spans the broad ideological
right in a rather un-Nordic way, had governed in coalition with the
agrarian flavoured Progressive Party. The latter secured the prime
minister's job in 2004.
The Progressive Party did badly in the 2007 election, however.
Afterwards, the social democratic Alliance (the result of a merger in
1999-2000) stepped in to replace it as the Independence Party's
coalition partner. (Such ostensibly "unconnected" coalitions are not
that unusual in Iceland.)
* Then came last autumn's economic catastrophe. The Independence Party
seemed to take most of the popular flak for it, having been in power so
long and having, allegedly, formed unhealthily intimate ties to the
discredited banking elite. (David Oddsson, the party's leader and prime
minister from 1991 to 2004, went straight to being head of the central
bank.)
* After the government's resignation nearly three months ago, an
Alliance minister, Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir - or, minus the Icelandic
letters, Johanna Sigurdardottir - took over as prime minister, after
bringing the Left-Green Movement (originally refuseniks from the parties
that formed the Alliance) into government to replace the Independence Party.
* Yesterday the two government parties won the combined left's first
ever parliamentary majority. Predictably, the Independence Party got
hammered, getting its worst-ever score, although it didn't fall behind
the Left-Greens, as some polls had predicted. The Progressive Party did
well, too.
* So too did one new party, the Citizens Movement, formed by people
involved in the protests that saw off the previous government. Its
hastily concocted platform seems to constitute an intriguing sort of
populism, with the sort of demands for more direct democratic mechanisms
(referendums, personal-preference voting, fewer parliamentary seats,
term limits for MPs) that we might recognise from right-wing populists,
but combined with demands for higher taxes rather than public-spending
cuts to pay back Iceland's loan from the IMF. Obervers seem to see the
party as more inclined to the left than to the right. (Source: the
Swedish-language Islandsbloggen.) The right-populist-tinged Liberals, on
the other hand, lost all their seats.
* Of the 63 MPs in the new parliament, 27 are themselves new and 26 are
women. (Source: IceNews.)
* Here are those results in full (plus comparison with the 2007
performance).
Left-Green Movement - 14 seats (+5), 21.7% (+7.4%)
Alliance - 20 seats (+2), 29.8% (+3%)
Citizens Movement - 4 seats (-), 7.2% (-)
Progressive Party - 9 seats (+2), 14.8% (+3.1%)
Liberals - 0 seats (-4), 2.2% (-5.1%)
Independence Party - 16 seats (-9), 23.7% (-12.9%).
turnout: 85.1% (+1.5%)
(Sources: Icelandic National Broadcasting Service, RUV; Parties and
Elections in Europe.)
* Despite their success, it is not absolutely certain that the two
government parties will continue their coalition. For one major issue
divides them: whether Iceland should apply for EU membership. The
Alliance is now strongly in favour of an application, subject to a
referendum; the Left-Greens' opposition to EU membership hardened during
the campaign. The Progressive Party and (in another interesting policy
twist) the Citizens Movement are both pro-EU, meanwhile. With those two
parties jointly holding just one seat fewer than the Left-Greens, the
Alliance might just consider a majority coalition with them instead.
(See a very interesting article on the issue in the Iceland Review Online.)
Once more, we see the EU having a funny effect on Nordic party politics.
* If people with genuine knowledge of Icelandic politics would like to
correct any of the above "analysis", please feel very free to do so.
Nick Aylott.
--
Dr Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer (docent) in political science
School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University, Stockholm
SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden
www.sh.se/statsvetenskap
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