Scandinavian Politics: Iceland's government falls

Hej to all on the Scandinavian Politics list,

Just a very brief note, in a very busy week, on developments in Nordic
politics.

In FINLAND and SWEDEN, the parties are putting together their candidate
lists for the European elections in June. This is a fascinating process,
but I won't go into it here (except to mention that the Swedish
Christian Democrats have got themselves into a right pickle in trying to
keep one of their more conservative figures away from proceedings).

The same thing is happening is DENMARK, but this has been rather
overshadowed by the opening of parliamentary hearings (in which my
compatriot, Ian Manners of the Danish Institute for International
Studies, has been centrally involved) into Denmark's relationship with
the European single currency. The pegged exchange-rate between the krone
and euro has forced the Danish central bank to raise interest rates in
the middle of a recession, à la 1992, which is not very desirable.

The prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has said that a new
referendum on the subject would require support from all the pro-EU
parties, which excludes his government's usual supporters in the Danish
People's Party, but which these days includes the Socialist People's
Party. It's leader, the wily Villy Søvndahl, sounds sceptical; but his
conditions for his party's support for a referendum don't seem
insurmountable. Agreeing to a referendum would remove another obstacle
to the Socialist People's Party's cementing a Norwegian- and
Swedish-style alliance with the Social Democrats (Søvndahl's party has
also been outlining its plans for government, which confirm its move
towards the centre).

But it's ICELAND where, as you've probably heard, it's all happening.

Pressure had been steadily building on the governing coalition of the
broad right-wing Independence Party and the social democratic Alliance.
Protests at the govermnent's and the central bank's handling of the
country's economic catastrophe have been escalating, and, remarkably for
Iceland, turning increasingly violent. On Friday the Independence prime
minister, Geir Haarde, conceded that an early election could be held, in
May (as well as announcing that he was suffering from cancer). On Sunday
the Social Democratic minister of commerce resigned, and called for the
head of the financial regulator to do the same. His party leader,
foreign minister Ingibjorg Gisladottir (herself recovering from the
removal of a brain tumour), called for the head of the central bank -
long-serving former Independence prime minister David Oddsson - to
resign, too. Yesterday the government collapsed.

President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson has asked Gisladottir to try to form a
government, and she's currently negotiating with the Left-Green Movement
over a minority administration. One possible consequence is a quick move
to start an Icelandic application for EU membership, something that's
taken up in this week's Economist
(www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12972641). The
FT's coverage of Iceland's crisis is also good (www.ft.com/iceland).

Nick Aylott.
--
Dr Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer (docent) in political science
School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University, Stockholm
SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden
www.sh.se/samhallsvetenskaper

Scandinavian Politics: Review of 2008

Hej to all on the Scandinavian Politics list,

Mary Hilson of University College London (m.hilson@ucl.ac.uk) has kindly
offered members of the list an exclusive preview of her summary of
Nordic politics in 2007, which she's compiled for the Annual Register (a
journal that, according to its website, "began publication in
1758...[and]...is now published by Longmans").

Mary writes that the Register's editor "has agreed that I can circulate
this to the list, as long as it is made clear that this is appearing in
the Annual Register and that it should not be quoted or cited without
permission." Mary also says that she would welcome "any comments on
content, accuracy, etc".

I attach the entry.

Best,

Nick Aylott.
--
Dr Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer (docent) in political science
School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University
SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden
www.sh.se/samhallsvetenskaper

Please feel free to forward this message to anyone who might be
interested. To join the Scandinavian Politics mailing list, send a
message to me, the convenor (nicholas.aylott@sh.se). If you want to send
something to the list, or if you don't want to receive these occasional
messages, just let me know. See also www.psa.ac.uk/scandinavia/

Scandinavian Politics: Danish parties

Dear all on the Scandinavian Politics list,

A happy new year to you all.

And the good news with which to kick off 2009 is that Danish party politics is as entertaining and fascinating as ever. The following account of this week's events was written mainly by Flemming Juul Christiansen of Aarhus University, with contributions from Jacob Christensen, now based at the University of Southern Denmark, and me.

-----

On Monday the leader and co-founder of New Alliance, Naser Khader, left his own party.

This originally centrist party was founded only 18 months ago. Its founding members were Khader and Anders Samuelsen, who both left the Social Liberal Party, and Gitte Seeberg, who left the Conservatives; two Liberals soon joined, too. At first the new party attracted broad support, up to 18 per cent. But after a mismanaged election campaign, it barely managed to cross the two percent threshold in the November 2007 election, and entered parliament with just five seats. Soon after, the party began to fall apart, with several MPs leaving the party, Gitte Seeberg among them. At one point, only Naser Khader and Anders Samuelsen were left, but they later they got a third seat when Seeberg resigned her parliamentary seat. The party restarted its party organisation, and later it changed its name to Liberal Alliance, with a new political programme that stressed traditional economic liberalism (especially low taxes).

In his resignation statement, Khader argued that Liberal Alliance had become to "liberalist" instead of "liberal". But it appeared that, had he not quit, Khader would have been unseated as party leader, with Samuelsen taking over. Liberal Alliance retains the right to run for the next election but it is not thought to have much chance of winning seats, even though the party now has a clear leadership – Samuelsen - and a pretty clear political programme. What you can say is that his Alliance is a record-breaker in Danish politics - losing its name, platform and four out of five MPs (including two of the party's three founders) in little over a year.

There is speculation that Khader may at some point join the Liberals or Conservatives. He has pledged, however, that he won't be forming any new parties - not least because, as he rather endearingly acknowledged, he isn't a very good party leader.

But there's more. Also on Monday, another former Social Liberal member, Simon Emil Amnitzbøll, took the initiative to form a new party, "Borgerligt centrum" ("Bourgeois Centre" is a direct rather unsatisfactory translation; note that the party itself doesn't offer any translation of its name). Its website (borgerligtcentrum.dk), which went live today, declares it to be "a new centre right party founded on liberal and humanistic values". Unlike Khader, Amnitzbøll was elected with very few personal votes. The new party will need to collect signatures to run for the next election, and this may turn out to be hard.

-----

Nick Aylott.
--
Dr Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer (docent) in political science
School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University, Stockholm
SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden
www.sh.se/samhallsvetenskaper