Dear all on the Scandinavian Poltiics list,
There's an interesting parliamentary situation developing in Denmark.
You'll recall that the incumbent coalition government of the Liberal and Conservative parties, supported by the far-right Danish People's Party, scraped back into office in November's election. But its slim one-seat majority is now under threat over the treatment of asylum-seekers.
Two things have put the government's majority in danger on this question. One was the post-election decision of a former Conservative Party leader, Pia Christmas-Møller, to leave the party's parliamentary group and sit as an independent. Indeed, it is Christmas-Møller who has tabled an amendment to the government's policy proposal (her amendment would allow asylum-seeking famlilies whose applications had been rejected, but whose homelands are too dangerous to send them back to, to live away from special accommodation centres sooner). The second development is the decision by the two MPs from Greenland to back this amendment, rather than maintaining their customary reluctance to get involved in Danish domestic politics.
The result is that the government could well lose the vote in parliament tomorrow. That does not necessarily mean that it will fall; it could simply choose not to interpret the issue as one of confidence. Formally, it is even entitled to ignore the decision. But there's already speculation that the Liberal prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, might even be tempted to call a snap election. This sounds drastic. But with the Social Democrats experiencing yet another round of infighting (leading party figures from Copenhagen launched a left-leaning discussion group last week), and with Christmas-Møller and the five New Alliance MPs almost certain to lose their seats, it might just be a tempting prospect for the government.
Tomorrow's parliamentary vote will be worth watching.
Best,
Nick Aylott.
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Dr Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer (docent) in political science
School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University College
SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden
www.sh.se/samhallsvetenskaper
