Dear all on the Scandinavian Politics list,
The main outcomes of yesterday's election in Denmark include the following.
THE RIGHT-WING COALITION will continue in office.
* The Liberals, the party of the prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, lost seats. But their coalition partners, the Conservatives, and the party that gives the coalition reliable support in parliament, the right-wing populist Danish People's Party, both made modest gains.
* A fair few Conservatives, and probably some Liberals, had been hoping that their coalition would no longer have to rely on the rather embarrassing support of the Danish People's Party, and instead secure a parliamentary majority with the help of the debutant New Alliance. But New Alliance wilted under the campaign spotlight, and its chance of supplanting the right-populists as the government's primary support - the newcomers' primary aim - was lost. This sealed another remarkably successful election for Pia Kjærsgaard's Danish People's Party.
* But it was close. Had a Liberal ally not held on to one of the Faroe islands' two seats (or, of course, if the left bloc had done just a bit better), New Alliance would still have grabbed the crucial median-legislator position. It's failure to do so saved the Liberals and Conservatives from having to rely for a majority on both the Danish People's Party to its right AND New Alliance to its left, which would have been decidedly tricky.
ON THE LEFT, there were mixed fortunes.
* The Social Democrats turned in yet another historically awful score. Yet opinion polls had for some time indicated that they would do even worse, and observers agreed that their leader, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, had a good campaign.
* The Social Liberals lost all the gains they made in 2005. This, plus Thorning-Schmidt's centrism, plus the near-collapse of the far-left Red-Green Alliance, gave a huge boost to the Socialist People's Party. That party's success, however, also owed a lot to its leader, Villy Søvndal.
Here are details of the result (source: Politiken).
RIGHT BLOC
New Alliance 2.8% (-), 5 seats (-)
Christian Democrats 0.9% (-0.8), 0 seats (0)
Conservatives 10.4% (+0.1), 18 seats (0)
Liberals 26.3% (-2.7), 46 seats (-6)
Danish People's Party 13.8% (+0.5), 25 seats (+1)
North Atlantic allies 1 seat
total: 54.2% of the vote, 95 seats, 53.1% of seats
LEFT BLOC
Social Liberals 5.1% (-4.1), 9 seats (-8)
Social Democrats 25.5% (-0.3), 45 seats (-2)
Socialist People's Party 13.0% (+7.0), 23 seats (+12)
Red-Green Alliance 2.2 (-1.2), 4 (-2)
North Atlantic allies 3 seats
total: 45.8% of the vote, 84 seats, 46.9% of seats
Potential majorities mooted before election, and how they ended up:
- Liberals + Conservatives + Danish People's Party = 89 seats, 49.7% of seats
- Liberals + Conservatives + Danish People's Party + Faroes ally = 90 seats, 50.3% of seats
- Liberals + Conservatives + New Alliance = 69 seats, 38.5% of seats
More detailed analysis will follow in the coming days.
Best,
Nick Aylott.
--
Dr Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer (docent) in political science
School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University College
SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden
www.sh.se/samhallsvetenskaper
