Scandinavian Politics latest

Hej to all on the Scandinavian Politics list,

Two quick notices.


1. We only managed to get one of our panels accepted for the PSA conference in Bath in April. This is a bit of a disappointment, and I'm not entirely happy about it. But the conference organisers have, apparently, been inundated with panel proposals, so sifting them was bound to be tricky.

The draft programme can be found at the conference website (www.psa.ac.uk/2007). We're in session B.


2. With the new Swedish government having settled down after its dreadful start, attention is now turning to the Social Democrats and their attempt to find a new leader. As was the case last time, in 1996, the slightly surreal competition revolves around who among the likely candidates can rule themselves out with the most conviction.

The early favourite, European commissioner Margot WALLSTRÖM, has now done so sufficiently often and firmly that some commentators have started to believe her. Still, the party's women's wing is still refusing to take no for an answer, and is still backing her. Meanwhile, one youthful contender, former foreign-aid minister Carin JÄMTIN, briefly looked to have surged into pole position a couple of weeks ago, when Aftonbladet, the left-leaning tabloid, backed her. Yet now she's saying that she wants to stay as opposition leader in Stockholm city council. She certainly has a bit of star quality. But she may have decided to keep her powder dry until the next contest.

Then there's another ex-minister, Ulrika MESSING. While obviously not being so reckless as to suggest that she might actually be interested in the job, she is clearly interested in the job. Somehow, though, few observers seem to take her crypto-candidature that seriously.

That leaves the outgoing leader's favourite, Per NUDER, the former finance minister. But he suffers from three major disadvantages. First, he's probably the candidate most associated with the "modernising" wing of the party, which is not obviously in the ascendancy. Second, he's not the most charismatic of politicians. Third, and probably fatally, he's a man. The clamour within the labour movement for a woman to lead the party, almost irrespective of who she is, seems too loud for it to ignore.

So, amazingly, a decade after the "Toblerone affair" did for her chances of the party leadership, it may well be Mona SAHLIN who gets the nod. Even since those "revelations" about her mildly chaotic domestic finances, her judgement hasn't always been entirely reliable: witness her involvement in the Masoud Kamali debacle (see this newsletter 060808). But the Social Democrats' election committee - which is sounding out the party's preferences and will, in January or February, propose a candidate, who will then (almost certainly) be confirmed by a special party congress in March - may not see many other options.


Best,

Nick Aylott.
--
Dr Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer (docent) in political science
School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University College
SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden
www.sh.se/statsvetenskap

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