Hej to subscribers to the PSA Scandinavian Politics list (and a few others),
European-flavoured emotions were running high last night in this part of the world – and I'm not just talking about my reaction to England's extraordinary act of footballing suicide. No, the result of Sweden's election to the European Parliament was also a real eyebrow-raiser.
This was for one major reason. It was only in the final week of the campaign that opinion polls began to suggest that the June List – a "cross-political" association formed, just four months ago, on a platform of support for EU membership but opposition to the transfer of more power to the European level – might actually win just enough votes, maybe 5%, to get a seat in the European Parliament. Yesterday it took, sensationally, 14.4%. Exit polls indicate that it took voters from all the other parties, but most from the Moderates and, especially, the Social Democrats.
Its score reflects a remarkable achievement by its leading light and top candidate, Nils Lundgren, who styles himself as a "market-liberal Social Democrat". He was prominent in the anti-EMU side in last year's referendum, but absolutely no one thought that his attempt to build on that campaign would so successful. The result bears out his consistent claim that there was a vacuum in the Swedish party system, between, on one side, the rather uncritically (at least at leadership level) pro-EU parties and, on the other, the Left and the Greens, who still call for Sweden's departure from the Union.
Of the other parties, there was some cheer for the Centre, whose curious metamorphosis into the campaign's most pro-EU party did not go obviously wrong, and the Christian Democrats, whose new leader had clearly feared a fiasco in his first electoral test. The governing Social Democrats, on the other hand, performed even more disastrously than in the previous European election, in 1999. A harsh observer might consider that to be a consequence of the party's lacklustre campaign (which the party leader clearly considered insufficiently important to plan a hip operation around) and pretty weak candidates. Turnout, meanwhile, dropped even further.
Here is the result, with yesterday's votes and mandates (and equivalents from 1999 in brackets).
Left Party 12.8% (15.8%), 2 (3)
Social Democrats 24.7% (26.0%), 5 (6)
Greens 5.9% (9.5%), 1 (2)
June List 14.4% (-), 3 (-)
Centre Party 6.3% (6.0%), 1 (1)
Liberals 9.8% (13.9%), 2 (3)
Christian Democrats 5.7% (7.6%), 1 (2)
Moderates 18.2% (20.7), 4 (5)
Sweden Democrats 1.1% (0.3%), 0 (0)
others 1.0% (0.5%), 0 (0)
turnout/total 37.2% (38.3%), 19 (22)
Source: Election Authority (www.val.se).
Things seem to have been a bit different in Denmark. The Eurosceptical parties went backwards there, and the Social Democrats - probably thanks to putting a former prime minister at the top of their list - did very well. If anyone would like to write something brief about the elections in Denmark or Finland, just send it to me, and I'll distribute it.
Best,
Nick.
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Dr Nicholas Aylott, research fellow (forskarassistent) Department of Political Science, Umeå University www.pol.umu.se
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