Dear all,
Good morning from Sweden. Below is a quick résumé of the election result as it stands. Postal votes won't all be counted until Wednesday, so things might change a bit; turnout, for instance, might well creep over 80 per cent.
LEFT PARTY (v) 8.3 per cent (-3.6 from 1998), 30 seats (-13). Disappointment at losing momentum after 1998's great leap forward, though bourgeois bloc kept out of office. Renewal of government-supporting role likely – though Schyman, v's major office-seeker, sounded uncertain about her future last night.
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS (s) 39.9 per cent (+3.5), 144 seats (+13). Extreme satisfaction at surpassing poll predictions, despite looking likely to need Green support again in parliament. First incumbent since 1968 to increase its score. Unexpected recovery of Stockholm's municipal government a sweet bonus.
s + v = 48.2 per cent (-0.2), 174/349 seats (no change)
GREENS (mp) 4.5 per cent (no change), 17 seats (+1). Relief at keeping seats, especially given leadership chaos in spring. Although attempts to stare out s over getting ministerial posts seemed to collapse feebly last week, new leadership otherwise had good campaign.
s + v + mp = 52.7 per cent (-0.2), 191/349 seats (+1)
CENTRE PARTY (c) 6.2 (+1.1), 22 seats (+4). Joy at increasing score for first time since 1973, probably due to "Maud effect"; she was in floods of tears last night. Would she answer a call from Persson about co-operation? "He already has his girlfriend [read: Schyman]."
LIBERALS (fp) 13.3 per cent (+8.6), 48 seats (+31). Sensational result, spectacularly ending four straight losses. Almost certainly a consequence of controversial integration (immigration) policy proposals – a brilliant tactical ploy. But leadership, whose confidence grew visibly in last six weeks, pointed to generally greater "clarity" in its message.
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS (kd) 9.1 per cent (-2.7), 33 seats (-9). Disappointment at losses – though, as leader pointed out, still party's second-best performance. Poll ratings fell as fp's surged.
MODERATES (m) 15.1 per cent (-7.8), 55 seats (-27). Catastrophe too mild a word. With lots of its votes going to fp, no longer the undisputed top bourgeois party. Lacklustre leadership an obvious problem; by campaign's end, Lundgren was urging voters to support any bourgeois party, and didn't slap down fp and kd bids for bloc's informal prime minister candidacy. Yet the final insult, the loss of Stockholm, sustained despite presence in municipal party of m's one popular figure. Big problems.
c + fp + kd + m = 43.7 per cent (-0.8), 158/349 seats (-1)
In sum, then, it's pretty much as you were in terms of government office and bloc strength. Despite unprecedented co-ordination, the right failed to make headway, though it got its hopes up in the final few weeks. There were big swings, but within the blocs, not between them. Updated results can be found at the Election Authority's website (www.val.se).
Best,
Nick Aylott.
--
Department of Political Science, Umeå University
www.pol.umu.se
